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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 78

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(2:17) 10-B.Robbins punts 41 yards to CLE 37, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 43 for 6 yards (84-M.Wilcox).

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.63 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 78, worth -4.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.21 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 35, worth -2.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.47 EP