Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 65

Cleveland Browns 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(5:55) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 56 yards to CIN 9, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 15-C.Jones to CIN 10 for 1 yard (29-C.Mitchell). PENALTY on CIN-35-J.Davis, Unnecessary Roughness, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 10.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.14 EP
58% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 65, worth -3.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model