4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
DAL Away

Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
@
WAS Home

Washington Commanders

HC Ron Rivera
Sunday 2023-01-08 · 16:25 FedExField, Landover US 🌧 Rain Spread -7.5 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

DAL
67.1%
WAS
32.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: +0.152 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Sam Howell (WAS): -0.216 EPA/dropback in prior starts (WAS starting Sam Howell in place of Carson Wentz)
  • WAS offense: -0.044 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • WAS defense: -0.050 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • DAL defense: -0.084 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • DAL on 3 more days rest than WAS

Predicted Final Score

DAL 23
–
WAS 18
Projected margin: DAL by 5 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

DAL

Tyler Biadasz C Out Ankle
Leighton Vander Esch LB Out Neck
Connor McGovern G Questionable Illness
Kavontae Turpin WR Questionable Illness

WAS

Jonathan Allen DT Out Knee
Saahdiq Charles T Out Concussion
Cornelius Lucas T Out Ankle
Brian Robinson RB Out Knee
James Smith-Williams DE Out Concussion
Benjamin St-Juste CB Out Ankle
Kamren Curl S Questionable Ankle
Jamin Davis LB Questionable Knee
Andrew Norwell G Questionable Hip
Nathan Gerry LB Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 6
–
WAS 26

Prediction missed by 25 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:14 TD WAS (11:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short middle to 17-T.McLaurin for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 0 – WAS 6
  • Q2 12:43 TD WAS (12:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right intended for 85-N.Brown INTERCEPTED by 29-K.Fuller at DAL 29. 29-K.Fuller for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 0 – WAS 13
  • Q2 00:10 TD DAL (:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – WAS 13
  • Q3 01:54 TD WAS (1:54) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell up the middle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – WAS 19
  • Q4 14:23 FG WAS (14:23) 6-J.Slye 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. DAL 6 – WAS 23
  • Q4 05:22 FG WAS (5:22) 6-J.Slye 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. DAL 6 – WAS 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64%

    (11:50) (Punt formation) 5-B.Anger FUMBLES (Aborted) at DAL 19, and recovers at DAL 19. 5-B.Anger to DAL 20 for 1 yard (46-M.Eifler).

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (9:47) 5-B.Anger punts 50 yards to WAS 32, Center-45-M.Overton. 15-D.Milne to WAS 38 for 6 yards (29-C.Goodwin).

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 4 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (8:51) 5-T.Way punts 41 yards to DAL 15, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 9-K.Turpin MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by WAS-34-C.Holmes at DAL 15. 34-C.Holmes to DAL 15 for no gain (9-K.Turpin).

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 8 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (6:39) 6-J.Slye 31 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 4 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (4:53) 5-B.Anger punts 41 yards to WAS 32, Center-45-M.Overton. 15-D.Milne MUFFS catch, and recovers at WAS 33.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (11:27) 5-B.Anger punts 59 yards to WAS 11, Center-45-M.Overton. 15-D.Milne to WAS 18 for 7 yards (1-K.Joseph).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 7 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 69%

    (7:37) 6-J.Slye 52 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 7 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (6:52) 5-B.Anger punts 38 yards to WAS 17, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 15-D.Milne.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 3 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (2:47) 5-T.Way punts 45 yards to DAL 17, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 9-K.Turpin ran ob at DAL 23 for 6 yards (95-C.Toohill).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 17
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 93%

    (:32) 4-D.Prescott right guard to WAS 15 for 2 yards (47-K.Hudson).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 3 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (12:59) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to DAL 16, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 23 for 7 yards (39-J.Reaves; 30-T.Apke).

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 7 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (11:19) 5-B.Anger punts 41 yards to WAS 33, Center-45-M.Overton. 15-D.Milne pushed ob at WAS 49 for 16 yards (85-N.Brown).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 6 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 36%

    (9:47) 5-T.Way punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Touchback.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (8:58) 5-B.Anger punts 54 yards to WAS 25, Center-45-M.Overton. 15-D.Milne to WAS 34 for 9 yards (45-M.Overton; 85-N.Brown).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 7 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (6:38) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to DAL 14, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 14 for no gain (2-D.Brown).

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 12 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (5:41) 5-B.Anger punts 47 yards to WAS 41, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 15-D.Milne.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 10 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (:51) 5-B.Anger punts 39 yards to WAS 33, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 15-D.Milne.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 6 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%

    (14:23) 6-J.Slye 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 41%

    (10:48) 4-D.Prescott right guard to WAS 45 for no gain (51-D.Mayo). WAS-47-K.Hudson was injured during the play.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 3 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 33%

    (9:19) 5-T.Way punts 39 yards to DAL 9, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 10 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (8:58) 5-B.Anger punts 51 yards to WAS 40, Center-45-M.Overton. 15-D.Milne ran ob at DAL 45 for 15 yards (31-T.Coyle; 14-J.Cox).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 2 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (5:22) 6-J.Slye 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 4 at the 69 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (4:22) 5-B.Anger punts 58 yards to WAS 11, Center-45-M.Overton. 15-D.Milne to WAS 13 for 2 yards (29-C.Goodwin; 45-M.Overton).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 2 at the 79 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (2:00) 5-T.Way punts 50 yards to DAL 29, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.