Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 91

Dallas Cowboys 6 – Washington Commanders 23

(8:58) 5-B.Anger punts 51 yards to WAS 40, Center-45-M.Overton. 15-D.Milne ran ob at DAL 45 for 15 yards (31-T.Coyle; 14-J.Cox).

The Three Options

GO -2.83 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.85 EP
60% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 91, worth -5.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model