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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 13

Washington Commanders 7 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(6:39) 6-J.Slye 31 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.97 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.98 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 13, worth +0.22 EP
KICK +2.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 23, worth -0.40 EP
PUNT +0.37 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model