Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 72

Dallas Cowboys 6 – Washington Commanders 20

(:51) 5-B.Anger punts 39 yards to WAS 33, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 15-D.Milne.

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.85 EP
62% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 72, worth -4.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model