Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 12 at the 88

Dallas Cowboys 6 – Washington Commanders 13

(5:41) 5-B.Anger punts 47 yards to WAS 41, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 15-D.Milne.

The Three Options

GO -3.03 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.65 EP
63% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 88, worth -5.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model