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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 67

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(11:50) (Punt formation) 5-B.Anger FUMBLES (Aborted) at DAL 19, and recovers at DAL 19. 5-B.Anger to DAL 20 for 1 yard (46-M.Eifler).

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.28 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 67, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 25, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model