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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 11

Washington Commanders 20 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(14:23) 6-J.Slye 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.82 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 22, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model