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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 63

Washington Commanders 13 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(6:38) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to DAL 14, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 14 for no gain (2-D.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.35 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 63, worth -3.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model