Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 17 at the 82

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Washington Commanders 7

(9:47) 5-B.Anger punts 50 yards to WAS 32, Center-45-M.Overton. 15-D.Milne to WAS 38 for 6 yards (29-C.Goodwin).

The Three Options

GO -3.14 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.24 EP
69% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 82, worth -5.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model