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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 62

Washington Commanders 13 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(2:47) 5-T.Way punts 45 yards to DAL 17, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 9-K.Turpin ran ob at DAL 23 for 6 yards (95-C.Toohill).

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.94 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 62, worth -3.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 21, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model