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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 64

Washington Commanders 13 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(12:59) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to DAL 16, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 23 for 7 yards (39-J.Reaves; 30-T.Apke).

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.32 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 64, worth -3.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 22, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP