Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 69

Dallas Cowboys 6 – Washington Commanders 26

(4:22) 5-B.Anger punts 58 yards to WAS 11, Center-45-M.Overton. 15-D.Milne to WAS 13 for 2 yards (29-C.Goodwin; 45-M.Overton).

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP

52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.30 EP
48% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 69, worth -3.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model