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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 74

Dallas Cowboys 6 – Washington Commanders 13

What Actually Happened

(11:19) 5-B.Anger punts 41 yards to WAS 33, Center-45-M.Overton. 15-D.Milne pushed ob at WAS 49 for 16 yards (85-N.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.41 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 74, worth -4.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 32, worth -1.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model