4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 48

Washington Commanders 23 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(9:19) 5-T.Way punts 39 yards to DAL 9, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.78 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 48, worth -2.53 EP
KICK -1.10 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP