Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 47

Washington Commanders 13 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(9:47) 5-T.Way punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.19 EP
61% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 47, worth -2.58 EP

KICK -0.99 EP

36% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
64% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model