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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 55

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Washington Commanders 13

What Actually Happened

(6:52) 5-B.Anger punts 38 yards to WAS 17, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 15-D.Milne.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.63 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 55, worth -3.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 16, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model