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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 70

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Washington Commanders 13

What Actually Happened

(11:27) 5-B.Anger punts 59 yards to WAS 11, Center-45-M.Overton. 15-D.Milne to WAS 18 for 7 yards (1-K.Joseph).

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 70, worth -4.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.53 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 28, worth -1.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model