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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
@
DEN Home

Denver Broncos

HC Gary Kubiak
Sunday 2016-01-24 · 15:05 Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

NE
50.3%
DEN
49.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to NE: Peyton Manning (DEN) -0.098 vs Tom Brady (NE) +0.140 EPA/dropback
  • DEN defense: -0.136 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • DEN offense: -0.061 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.121 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NE 22
–
DEN 21
Projected margin: NE by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 20

NE

Danny Amendola WR Questionable Knee
Scott Chandler TE Questionable Knee
Jamie Collins LB Questionable Back
Nate Ebner S Questionable Hand
Julian Edelman WR Questionable Foot
Darius Fleming LB Questionable Back
Jonathan Freeny LB Questionable Hand
Rob Gronkowski TE Questionable Knee
Dont'a Hightower LB Questionable Knee
Tre' Jackson G Questionable Knee
Chandler Jones DE Questionable Abdomen
Rob Ninkovich DE Questionable Shin
Matt Slater WR Questionable Shin
Bryan Stork C Questionable Ankle
Sebastian Vollmer T Questionable Ankle
LaAdrian Waddle T Questionable Shoulder
Tom Brady QB Probable Ankle
Patrick Chung S Probable Foot
Josh Kline G Probable Shoulder
Brandon LaFell WR Probable Foot
Devin McCourty S Probable Ankle

DEN

Josh Bush S Probable Shoulder
Owen Daniels TE Probable Knees
Todd Davis LB Probable Shoulder
Max Garcia G Probable Groin
Chris Harris CB Probable Shoulder
Peyton Manning QB Probable Foot
Brandon Marshall LB Probable Ankle
Brock Osweiler QB Probable Knee
Darian Stewart S Probable Hamstring
T.J. Ward S Probable Ankle
DeMarcus Ware LB Probable Knee
Bradley Roby CB Probable Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 20 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 18
–
DEN 20

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:37 TD DEN (7:37) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep middle to 81-O.Daniels for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 0 – DEN 6
  • Q1 01:53 TD NE (1:53) 39-S.Jackson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – DEN 7
  • Q2 13:51 TD DEN (13:51) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short right to 81-O.Daniels for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – DEN 13
  • Q2 07:07 FG NE (7:07) 3-S.Gostkowski 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 9 – DEN 14
  • Q2 00:38 FG DEN (:38) 8-B.McManus 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. NE 9 – DEN 17
  • Q3 10:31 FG NE (10:31) 3-S.Gostkowski 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 12 – DEN 17
  • Q4 10:06 FG DEN (10:06) 8-B.McManus 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. NE 12 – DEN 20
  • Q4 00:17 TD NE (:17) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 87-R.Gronkowski for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-D.Ware]. NE 18 – DEN 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 8 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:12) 6-R.Allen punts 47 yards to DEN 18, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 17 for -1 yards (36-B.King).

  • Q1 NE 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (6:52) 6-R.Allen punts 55 yards to DEN 18, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 34 for 16 yards (85-M.Williams).

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 6 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (5:19) 4-B.Colquitt punts 50 yards to NE 12, Center-46-A.Brewer. 80-D.Amendola to NE 40 for 28 yards (4-B.Colquitt).

  • Q1 NE 4th & 16 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (3:16) 6-R.Allen punts 45 yards to DEN 21, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 11-J.Norwood. PENALTY on NE-38-B.Bolden, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 21.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 9 at the 39
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 52%

    (14:53) 4-B.Colquitt punts 26 yards to NE 13, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 9 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 78%

    (7:07) 3-S.Gostkowski 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (5:29) 4-B.Colquitt punts 49 yards to NE 26, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds. PENALTY on DEN-36-K.Webster, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at NE 26.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 14 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (2:34) 4-B.Colquitt punts 48 yards to NE 12, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 5 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (1:52) 6-R.Allen punts 39 yards to DEN 44, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 3 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 67%

    (:38) 8-B.McManus 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 15 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (13:25) 4-B.Colquitt punts 53 yards to NE 32, Center-46-A.Brewer. 80-D.Amendola to NE 33 for 1 yard (14-C.Latimer).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 10 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 89%

    (10:31) 3-S.Gostkowski 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 1 at the 46
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 34%

    (6:49) 4-B.Colquitt punts 38 yards to NE 8, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 14 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (4:52) 6-R.Allen punts 52 yards to DEN 44, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-36-B.King.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 11 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (2:48) 4-B.Colquitt punts 53 yards to NE 4, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by DEN-48-S.Barrett.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 14 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (:10) 6-R.Allen punts 43 yards to DEN 33, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 39 for 6 yards (36-B.King).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 13 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 95%

    (10:06) 8-B.McManus 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 16
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 93%

    (6:03) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 11-J.Edelman to DEN 17 for -1 yards (25-C.Harris; 21-A.Talib) [94-D.Ware].

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 7 at the 80 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (4:46) 4-B.Colquitt punts 54 yards to NE 26, Center-46-A.Brewer. 80-D.Amendola to NE 29 for 3 yards (14-C.Latimer).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 6 at the 14 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 94%

    (2:25) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short middle to 87-R.Gronkowski (21-A.Talib).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 10 at the 86 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:04) 4-B.Colquitt punts 52 yards to NE 34, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-J.Edelman pushed ob at 50 for 16 yards (20-J.Bush).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 10 at the 50 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 25%

    (1:34) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 87-R.Gronkowski to DEN 10 for 40 yards (20-J.Bush; 25-C.Harris).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 4 at the 4 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (:17) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 87-R.Gronkowski for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-D.Ware].