4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 14

New England Patriots 12 – Denver Broncos 20

What Actually Happened

(2:25) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short middle to 87-R.Gronkowski (21-A.Talib).

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +4.96 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 14, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.65 EP