Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 75

Denver Broncos 14 – New England Patriots 9

What Actually Happened

(5:29) 4-B.Colquitt punts 49 yards to NE 26, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds. PENALTY on DEN-36-K.Webster, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at NE 26.

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.63 EP
57% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 75, worth -4.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model