Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 86

Denver Broncos 20 – New England Patriots 12

(2:04) 4-B.Colquitt punts 52 yards to NE 34, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-J.Edelman pushed ob at 50 for 16 yards (20-J.Bush).

The Three Options

GO -2.47 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.85 EP
66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 86, worth -4.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model