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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 28

New England Patriots 6 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(7:07) 3-S.Gostkowski 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.52 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 28, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 38, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model