Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 16 at the 66

New England Patriots 0 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(3:16) 6-R.Allen punts 45 yards to DEN 21, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 11-J.Norwood. PENALTY on NE-38-B.Bolden, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 21.

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.55 EP
74% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 66, worth -3.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model