Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 14 at the 60

Denver Broncos 14 – New England Patriots 9

(2:34) 4-B.Colquitt punts 48 yards to NE 12, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.75 EP
74% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 60, worth -3.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model