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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 39

Denver Broncos 7 – New England Patriots 6

What Actually Happened

(14:53) 4-B.Colquitt punts 26 yards to NE 13, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.04 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 39, worth -1.78 EP
KICK +0.05 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 48, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model