Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 83

New England Patriots 9 – Denver Broncos 14

(1:52) 6-R.Allen punts 39 yards to DEN 44, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.81 EP
54% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 83, worth -4.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model