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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 16

New England Patriots 12 – Denver Broncos 20

What Actually Happened

(6:03) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 11-J.Edelman to DEN 17 for -1 yards (25-C.Harris; 21-A.Talib) [94-D.Ware].

The Three Options

GO +2.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.79 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 16, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +2.20 EP
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model