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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 13 at the 13

Denver Broncos 17 – New England Patriots 12

What Actually Happened

(10:06) 8-B.McManus 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.97 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 13, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 23, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model