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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 33

Denver Broncos 14 – New England Patriots 9

What Actually Happened

(:38) 8-B.McManus 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.19 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 33, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.59 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 43, worth -1.31 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model