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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 15 at the 85

Denver Broncos 17 – New England Patriots 9

What Actually Happened

(13:25) 4-B.Colquitt punts 53 yards to NE 32, Center-46-A.Brewer. 80-D.Amendola to NE 33 for 1 yard (14-C.Latimer).

The Three Options

GO -3.12 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.68 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 85, worth -4.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 43, worth -2.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model