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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 14 at the 76

New England Patriots 12 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(:10) 6-R.Allen punts 43 yards to DEN 33, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 39 for 6 yards (36-B.King).

The Three Options

GO -2.64 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.85 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 76, worth -4.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 34, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model