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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 62

Denver Broncos 7 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(5:19) 4-B.Colquitt punts 50 yards to NE 12, Center-46-A.Brewer. 80-D.Amendola to NE 40 for 28 yards (4-B.Colquitt).

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.60 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 62, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 21, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model