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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 4

New England Patriots 12 – Denver Broncos 20

What Actually Happened

(:17) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 87-R.Gronkowski for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-D.Ware].

The Three Options

GO +2.84 EP
What Happened
  • 39% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.94 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 4, worth +0.21 EP
KICK +2.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.00 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model