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DAL Away

Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
@
NYG Home

New York Giants

HC Ben McAdoo
Sunday 2016-12-11 · 20:30 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

DAL
63.4%
NYG
36.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: +0.181 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Dak Prescott (DAL): +0.315 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NYG offense: -0.089 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • NYG defense: -0.096 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • DAL defense: +0.064 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • DAL on 3 more days rest than NYG

Predicted Final Score

DAL 25
–
NYG 22
Projected margin: DAL by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

DAL

Morris Claiborne CB Out Groin
Chaz Green T Out Back
J.J. Wilcox S Out Thigh
Demarcus Lawrence DE Questionable Back
Barry Church S Questionable Forearm
Jack Crawford DE Questionable Foot
Justin Durant LB Questionable Hamstring
Orlando Scandrick CB Questionable Foot
Tyron Smith T Questionable Back

NYG

Nat Berhe S Out Concussion
Mark Herzlich LB Out Concussion
Jason Pierre-Paul DE Out Core Muscle
Johnathan Hankins DT Questionable Quadricep
Dwayne Harris WR Questionable Ankle
Owamagbe Odighizuwa DE Questionable Knee
Justin Pugh G Questionable Knee
Coty Sensabaugh CB Questionable Ribs

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 7
–
NYG 10

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 30 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:51 TD DAL (4:51) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 83-T.Williams for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – NYG 0
  • Q3 05:54 FG NYG (5:54) 5-R.Gould 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. DAL 7 – NYG 3
  • Q3 01:18 TD NYG (1:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 13-O.Beckham for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 7 – NYG 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 13 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (12:33) 9-B.Wing punts 44 yards to DAL 18, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 3 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57%

    (10:58) 6-C.Jones punts 45 yards to NYG 30, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 13-O.Beckham.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 16 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (9:00) 9-B.Wing punts 43 yards to DAL 33, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-37-E.Pinkins.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 1 at the 58
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (7:31) 21-E.Elliott right tackle to DAL 44 for 2 yards (59-D.Kennard, 57-K.Robinson).

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 3 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 75%

    (1:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 13-O.Beckham to DAL 24 for 7 yards (39-B.Carr, 56-J.Durant).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 5 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 60%

    (11:13) 9-B.Wing punts 35 yards to DAL 3, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-17-D.Harris.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 11 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (8:49) 6-C.Jones punts 45 yards to NYG 38, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 13-O.Beckham ran ob at 50 for 12 yards (91-L.Ladouceur).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 19 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 55%

    (4:00) 6-C.Jones punts 30 yards to NYG 10, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 13-O.Beckham.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 5 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (3:10) 9-B.Wing punts 42 yards to DAL 43, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 11-C.Beasley to NYG 29 for 28 yards (91-K.Sheppard, 57-K.Robinson). PENALTY on DAL-31-B.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 43.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 2 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.30 EP
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 42%

    (1:38) 6-C.Jones punts 31 yards to NYG 14, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 13-O.Beckham.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (:42) 9-B.Wing punts 46 yards to DAL 31, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 32 for 1 yard (17-D.Harris). PENALTY on DAL-23-L.McFadden, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 31. Officially, a return for 0 yards.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (14:05) 6-C.Jones punts 48 yards to NYG 24, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 13-O.Beckham to NYG 29 for 5 yards (89-G.Escobar). PENALTY on NYG-93-B.Goodson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 29.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 1 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (12:32) 9-B.Wing punts 57 yards to DAL 15, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 11-C.Beasley pushed ob at DAL 28 for 13 yards (91-K.Sheppard, 51-Z.DeOssie). PENALTY on DAL-23-L.McFadden, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at DAL 18. Officially, a return for 3 yards.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 1 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (10:50) 6-C.Jones punts 37 yards to NYG 45, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 13-O.Beckham MUFFS catch, and recovers at NYG 44. 13-O.Beckham to NYG 44 for no gain (57-D.Wilson). Officially, a punt for 38 yards.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 3 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 62%

    (7:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 87-S.Shepard to DAL 23 for 14 yards (32-O.Scandrick).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 8 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 90%

    (5:54) 5-R.Gould 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 5 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (14:54) 6-C.Jones punts 51 yards to NYG 30, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 17-D.Harris to NYG 34 for 4 yards (41-K.Smith).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 17 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (7:05) 6-C.Jones punts 44 yards to NYG 31, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 13-O.Beckham.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 2 at the 61 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (4:49) 9-B.Wing punts 50 yards to DAL 11, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 80 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (3:14) 6-C.Jones punts 52 yards to NYG 28, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 13-O.Beckham to NYG 33 for 5 yards (52-A.Gachkar, 16-V.Mayle).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 6 at the 63 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (2:46) 9-B.Wing punts 39 yards to DAL 24, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 8 at the 36 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.22 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 65%

    (1:15) 9-B.Wing punts 33 yards to DAL 3, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-17-D.Harris.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 10 at the 97 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.64 EP
    p(convert) 40%

    (:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 88-D.Bryant to DAL 20 for 17 yards (20-J.Jenkins). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep middle to 88-D.Bryant (20-J.Jenkins).