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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 31

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(1:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 13-O.Beckham to DAL 24 for 7 yards (39-B.Carr, 56-J.Durant).

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.38 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 31, worth -1.09 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
  • 75% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 41, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model