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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 58

Dallas Cowboys 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(7:31) 21-E.Elliott right tackle to DAL 44 for 2 yards (59-D.Kennard, 57-K.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.81 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 58, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 18, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model