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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 61

New York Giants 10 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(4:49) 9-B.Wing punts 50 yards to DAL 11, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.65 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 61, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.68 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 20, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP