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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 37

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(7:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 87-S.Shepard to DAL 23 for 14 yards (32-O.Scandrick).

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.71 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 37, worth -1.74 EP
KICK +0.45 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 46, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model