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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 16 at the 76

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(9:00) 9-B.Wing punts 43 yards to DAL 33, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-37-E.Pinkins.

The Three Options

GO -2.43 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.41 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 76, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 34, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model