Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 11 at the 83

Dallas Cowboys 7 – New York Giants 0

(8:49) 6-C.Jones punts 45 yards to NYG 38, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 13-O.Beckham ran ob at 50 for 12 yards (91-L.Ladouceur).

The Three Options

GO -2.73 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.19 EP
64% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 83, worth -4.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model