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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 13 at the 62

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(12:33) 9-B.Wing punts 44 yards to DAL 18, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.27 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 62, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 21, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model