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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 72

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(12:32) 9-B.Wing punts 57 yards to DAL 15, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 11-C.Beasley pushed ob at DAL 28 for 13 yards (91-K.Sheppard, 51-Z.DeOssie). PENALTY on DAL-23-L.McFadden, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at DAL 18. Officially, a return for 3 yards.

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.60 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 72, worth -4.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.29 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 30, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP