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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 45

Dallas Cowboys 7 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(1:38) 6-C.Jones punts 31 yards to NYG 14, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 13-O.Beckham.

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.93 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 45, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -0.68 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.30 EP