Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 97

Dallas Cowboys 7 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 88-D.Bryant to DAL 20 for 17 yards (20-J.Jenkins). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep middle to 88-D.Bryant (20-J.Jenkins).

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP

What Happened

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.14 EP
60% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 97, worth -3.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (114 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.64 EP