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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 19 at the 40

Dallas Cowboys 7 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(4:00) 6-C.Jones punts 30 yards to NYG 10, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 13-O.Beckham.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.23 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 40, worth -2.02 EP
KICK -0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model