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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 77

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(:42) 9-B.Wing punts 46 yards to DAL 31, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 32 for 1 yard (17-D.Harris). PENALTY on DAL-23-L.McFadden, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 31. Officially, a return for 0 yards.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.57 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 77, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 34, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model