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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 17 at the 75

Dallas Cowboys 7 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(7:05) 6-C.Jones punts 44 yards to NYG 31, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 13-O.Beckham.

The Three Options

GO -2.43 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.07 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 75, worth -4.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 32, worth -1.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model