4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 36

New York Giants 10 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(1:15) 9-B.Wing punts 33 yards to DAL 3, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-17-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +1.14 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 36, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 46, worth -1.53 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.22 EP